Japanese vendors look for overseas expansion, this time for real...

I decided to write this post in a response to a very thoughtful analysis of 2010 handset vendor trends made by Tomi Ahonen on his Communities Dominate Brands blog. Among other vendors, Tomi lays out his expectations for Japanese vendors, especially citing Fujitsu as the world's fifth biggest smartphone maker. Thanks, Tomi ;) I am not going to touch here the very tricky subject of smartphone definition, but am just going to say that in Japan the most phones sold by domestic vendors, including Fujitsu are not considered to be smartphones. However, Tomi's post made me wonder when we can expect Japanese vendors compete on a worldwide scale. After several failed attempts in the past, this and next year will be crucial for Japanese vendors to launch internationally as the window of opportunity is quickly closing.

Gloom in domestic market

The Japan mobile phone market saw sequential decline in the third quarter of 2009, becoming the worst quarter in five years in terms of total handset shipments, according to IDC Japan. Mobile phone shipments totaled 7.32 million units, down 12.8% from a year earlier. Quarter-on-quarter growth remained negative for eight quarters in a row. The major showstoppers were:

• Lack of compelling high-end handsets
• Increased handset replacement cycle
• Excess inventories on operator side

To go global or not to go?

With such a pessimistic mood in their backyard, Japanese vendors face an invitable choice - to go global or die trying. Top five domestic mobile phone vendors by 3Q2009 (see chart above) - Sharp, Fujitsu, Panasonic, NEC and Kyocera are already selling phones in some markets outside Japan or planning to do so very soon. It doesn't mean everybody will succeed and I expect some market consolidation by the end of this year or earlier into the next year. Here is a summary of who done what and what to expect next.

Sharp

Sharp is the one to watch closely after as the company is rumored to be the manufacturer of the first "Microsoft" phone - a device based on Danger Hiptop/Sidekick platform acquired by Microsoft a couple of years ago. Sharp also plans to enter markets in Europe and North America after it tasted the waters in the nearby Asian markets including Taiwan and China. Sharp sold about 1.6 million devices abroad in 2008 and aims to boost that number to 4 million units by March 2010.

Fujitsu

Fujitsu made a modest enter into the Taiwan market, partnering with FET in January 2009. Last year, the company also joined Symbian Foundation reinforcing its support for Symbian OS domestically and utilizing the membership as an opportunity to broaden the Symbian appeal elsewhere. However, Fujitsu is not only focused on Symbian - the company is also known for manufacturing Windows Mobile handsets and it created the whole market niche in Japan with its very successful Raku-Raku lineup targetd at senior end-users. Obviously, I can't say anything beyond that but expect Fujitsu to make some headlines in future.

Panasonic

Panasonic is rumored to enter neighboring markets, with the main destination being China. There are some talks of Panasonic considering South American markets, especially Brazil where the similar with Japan's mobile TV standard is being adopted.

Toshiba

Backed by NTT DoCoMo, Toshiba added its first customer win in Europe in June 2009 by partnering with Spain's Telefonica. Having attracted industry's attention with the release of the TG01 - one of the thinnest Windows Mobile smartphones produced by ODM vendor for Toshiba, the company made a decision to outsource the manufacturing of phones out of Japan from October 2009.

NEC (NEC/Hitachi/Casio)

Having retreated from overseas markets in 2006, NEC is planning a comeback. First, it joined forces with two other players - Hitachi and Casio. As the leverage, the new company can utilize Casio's existing channel in the US. As you might've known, Casio found its niche in the US with a ruggedized and water resistant phone line bound for Verizon Wireless. Hitachi also rebranded its Wooo W53H keitai into the canU S1000 and shipped it to South Korea

Kyocera

Kyocera is an old-timer in the US market and now company also sells in Soth America as well. It got into Sprint's storefronts through the acquisition of another troubled Japanese vendor Sanyo. The prospects are still not clear for Kyocera overseas and domestically the picture is even worse.

Japanese vendors overseas
Kyocera	USA/Canada/Russia/India/Thai/Vietnam/New Zealand
Sharp	Europe/North America/China/Taiwan/Hong Kong
Toshiba	Europe/Asia
NEC-Hitachi-Casio	USA/South Korea
Fujitsu	Taiwan
Source:	M-Report